Canelo/Chavez Jr Breakdown And Prediction

Image Courtesy of GoldenBoy Promotions

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(Photo Via: GoldenBoy Promotions)

On Cinco de Mayo weekend, May 6 Live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Canelo Alvarez and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr will finally lock horns.

The much anticipated clash takes place at a 164.5 lb. catchweight, a weight that I feel will affect both fighters. Question is, who will it affect more?

Both fighters hold very respectable records with an impressive just over 100 combined professional fights between them. Canelo Alvarez sports a near flawless record at 48-1-1, with 34 big KOs, while his arch rival Julio Cesar Chavez Jr has a 50-2-1 record with 32 KOs.

This clash will be a lot more than just a fight, it is a war between two fighters that wouldn’t provide spit or urine if one of them was caught on fire. Some fight fans have gone as far as to say that this is a turf war between the Guadalajara and Culiacan cartels.

Who really knows how deep the root of all this stands, all I know is that the rivalry and their hatred for one another is real. As I type this, Jr’s younger brother Omar has just beaten Canelos’s older brother Ramon by 2nd round technical knockout.

I guess the Chavez family has drawn first blood.

So with that Omar big win over Ramon, I now question how Chavez Jr will decide to mentally digest this victory. Junior can either allow it to motivate him or he can sink to the immense pressure that it’s now on him to place that last candle on the cake.

Same can be said about Canelo, he can either become even more motivated than ever by his brothers loss, or he can drown in anger and frustration and toss his game plan out the window and his thoughts could only be on revenge.

The line has been drawn across the sand and the war has now begun, now allow me to get into it and begin to breakdown this mega fight.

BREAKDOWN:

Going into the fight, Chavez will have the clear size advantage so he must bang Canelo to the body then hold and lay on his smaller foe to tire him out.

Canelo will have the crystal clear speed advantage so he must flash his jab and change the speed variations on his jab to walk the giant into a big shot.

I see a close contested back and forth battle for the first six rounds with both fighters landing their good share of heavy shots.

In round seven, Canelo will start to outwit his much bigger foe by using hard feints to set up clean landing hooks upstairs and downstairs.

In round nine Canelo will begin to lose steam and will drive his corner crazy by risking to invite Chavez over to the nearest ring post to lay on the ropes until he can get more air into his lungs.

Rounds 10-12, known as the championship rounds, both fighters pushed by pride will really put it all on the line and overlook their near empty gas tanks to blitz each other with murderous shots.

Prediction: Canelo will employ a lead stab jab to the body and will feint with it to land just enough overhand right hand daggers to shake up Chavez.

Chavez will dig to the body but his lack of commitment to his own jab will be his downfall as he walks into lead Canelo check hooks.

I see Canelo using his versatility and mobility to his advantage to steal the close rounds to secure a unanimous decision big win to a thunderous roar of the sell out crowd. 

Canelo Alvarez by Unanimous Decision