Outlook on Justin Verlander to the Astros

Outlook on Justin Verlander to the Astros

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AP Photo/Paul Beaty

My, oh my. The trades just don’t end, and this one is going to hurt. Tigers’ franchise pitcher Justin Verlander is off to the Houston Astros for Houston No. 3 prospect righty Franklin Perez, No. 9 prospect outfielder Daz Cameron, No. 11 prospect catcher Jake Rogers and a player to be named or cash.

Houston will look to use Verlander to provide depth in their starting rotation to chase a World Series. For Detroit, this is apart of a long rebuilding process from GM Al Avila, as Verlander is the fifth Tiger to be traded this season.

But this time it was only a minute before deadline. And when we say the deadline, we actually mean deadline, unlike that silly little July 31 teaser.

Here are the pros and cons of Verlander to the Astros.

Pros

The Astros want a World Series run, and here’s how it’s going to happen. Verlander may fit in Houston’s rotation as a top three pitcher along with Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers. He also has significant playoff experience.

Verlander had a shaky start to the year but has improved each month of 2017, leading up to his 2.36 ERA in the month of August. He re-found his game and continues to grind at 34 years old. He has a 10-8 record and is pitching 3.82 on the season with a 1.28 WHIP and 176 strikeouts.

With this trade, Houston continues to assert themselves as perhaps the best team in the American League. This is their chance to finally win a World Series and Verlander may be the final piece to the puzzle to solidify a truly dominant starting rotation. With McCullers currently rehabbing in the minors, Verlander’s emergence is all the more important.

Verlander is also hungry for a World Series. He was reluctant to leave Detroit, who drafted him way back in 2004. According to the 10-and-5 rights, Verlander could have denied this trade if he wanted to stay in Detroit.

But his decision to depart was probably based on winning a ring Detroit could never give him. Nobody in the MLB wants to win a World Series more than Verlander which makes him a great fit for any World Series contending club.

For the Tigers, what more can you ask for? Three huge prospects from arguably a top-five farm system are coming their way. Franklin Perez, 19, is a right-handed relief pitcher. He played in AA Corpus Christi and A+ Buies Creek where he racked up a 6-3 record with a 3.02 ERA and three saves. He is a top 50 world prospect and is easily the Tigers’ best pitching prospect.

Daz Cameron, 20, found mild success all over the place in A Quad Cities. He’s hitting .271 with a slugging percentage of .467, 73 RBI’s, 29 doubles and 32 stolen bases. He’s a better than average centerfielder as well. Cameron is having a great second half to 2017 after a sluggish start and is projected to be at least a solid backup outfielder.

Jake Rogers, 22, has played both catcher and designated hitter in A Quad Cities and A+ Buies Creek with a .265 average and .476 slugging percentage. He also has 70 RBI’s, 25 doubles, 18 homers, 14 stolen bases and 52 base on balls. He’s also a better than average defender and could end up being an everyday starter in the majors.

The Tigers got three very good young prospects who improve on speed, defense and relief pitching all while disposing of a huge Verlander contract in one fell swoop. Take a bow, Al Avila.

Cons

As you could probably imagine, Verlander isn’t exactly cheap. He’s owed $28 million in 2018 and 2019 and $22 million in 2020 if he is a top five Cy Young candidate the previous year.

Further, anytime you trade three top 11 prospects for a 34-year-old pitcher, there will always be a few question marks. Verlander has playoff experience, but that doesn’t mean he’s unbeatable in the postseason. In fact, he’s 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in the World Series.

As for the Tigers, the biggest blow from this trade just might be the emotional pain that comes from giving up arguably the face of Detroit sports. Even more bittersweet, he wanted to go. Again, Verlander could veto any trade he was proposed in. But he didn’t.

Of course, one can’t blame Verlander for chasing that coveted World Series, and emotion should never get in the way of doing what is truly the right move for a program. That said, the Detroit will have to pay off a portion of JV’s contract, at least $10 million, so the Tigers still have financial concerns.

Further, you just never know on prospects. Each of these three men are well-ranked, but who can say for sure how they’ll turn out. Perez will enter a Tigers coaching staff that never seems to do well with relievers. Cameron looks to be good, but not necessarily fantastic. The same argument could be made for Rogers.

Outlook

The Astros just need to win a World Series already. So does Verlander. The two sides are desperate for a championship. It’s always risky betting on the future, After all, if the Astros still cannot win a World Series, then this is all for nothing. But if they are serious about winning it all, then they need to be risk-takers.

The Astros look like the best team in the AL, but August has not been kind to them. To get back on track and build an ideal trio of starters for the postseason, a deal needed to happen.

For the Tigers, the goal is simple: trade the house. Detroit already dealt JD Martinez, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila before the July 31 deadline. But the word “deadline” in that sentence is meaningless, as two more massive trades came today, one with Justin Upton and the other with Verlander.

Even though the Tigers will end up paying at least $10 million in Verlander’s contract, this is very little in the grand scheme of things. They substantially addressed their huge payroll and stocked up on prospects.

All three prospects are solid pickups, but Perez is the real gem of this deal. The Tigers are in dire need of long-term bullpen stability and Perez can do just that.

The outlook for Houston is that this trade will unquestionably favor them if they get that ring, but in no other case. If not, it’s a loss for both Houston and JV.

For Detroit, it’s a painful victory. Nobody wants to see Verlander leave. It truly is the end of an era. But this is exactly how a rebuilding team is supposed to look. It’s how the Astros became an American League powerhouse in the first place.