The advancement of hockey is pretty impressive. Players used to come from Minnesota and Detroit. Now, it’s a completely different story. Hockey players are recruited from all over and they’re respected for their game and wisdom. Those who are willing to put some effort into handicapping the NHL are rewarded big time. Indeed, NHL betting will never reach the same level as other important sports, like basketball, but that doesn’t mean that it’s not worth wagering on the games. Advanced stats can make you more successful when betting on hockey. Keep on reading to discover the most valuable stats for bettors.
Fenwick
This advanced stat is used to measure the overall number of shots while playing at even strength. Approximately 75% of shots taken throughout an NHL season are at even strength, so it doesn’t come as a surprise. Fenwick is the same as Corsi, the only difference being that it doesn’t take into consideration blocked shots. Why? Simply because blocking shots is a skill, not a string of random events. As a rule, a hockey team’s CF% and FF% are close. If you’re curious to know what’s with the weird name, find out that Fenwick is named after Matt Fenwick, a blogger for the Calgary Flames. Mr. Fenwick can be found on Twitter.
Expected goals
According to the experts at ATS, expected goals is a relatively new metric in data analysis. This advanced metric allows you to get a better understanding of the goal scoring opportunities that are created. A team that is trailing, say, 3-0 will obviously up its game and score more goals. Expected goals is particularly helpful when it comes to predicting future scoring because it focuses on shot attempts. You can use 2 metrics, namely Corsi and xG, to evaluate teams and players. Fenwick and Corsi consider shot attempts, they don’t consider the quality of the shots. xG takes into account shot location and uses league-wide averages.
PDO
PDO is a shooting percentage, combined with a save percentage. You can use it with Corsi or Fenwick to handicap team strength. To get the number you need, add the team’s 5v5 SH% and 5v5 SV%, and then multiply the result by 10. You can use the advanced stat for individual players, but keep in mind that the whole is more than the sum of its parts. It’s not uncommon to see PDO regression drive results in the NHL. Most teams regress to the mean.
Corsi
Corsi refers to the value of the entire team and it counts for the total number of shots at the net and against at even strength. It’s an indirect measure for offensive zone position. If the team directs the puck towards the net, it’s a Corsi For. If the other team does that, it’s a Corsi Against. It’s important not to overestimate the value of Corsi. You’ll have a shortsighted view of the game or worse, underestimate the factors that lead to wins and losses. Numerous things in a hockey game are worth your attention, so it’s difficult to know on which one to focus on first. Anyway, Corsi isn’t a fancy stat. It’s a number that helps you approximate puck possession and, implicitly, forecast future success.